How to Interpret the MACD

• The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator is one of the oldest and most popular tools in technical analysis. When added to the price chart of a stock or other financial instrument, it can offer insights about price momentum and potential trend changes. The indicator is based on two moving average lines derived from price action. The distance between these averages is the basis of the main MACD line, however, it also plots its own moving average of the MACD line as a "signal." Thus, most MACD indicators show two lines that oscillate up and down as prices fluctuate.

Instructions

Things You'll Need

• Stock charting software with MACD indicator

1. • 1
     Open any charting platform and create a chart of the financial instrument of your choice. In most platforms, you simply type the ticker symbol of a stock or other instrument into the chart windows and press "Enter." A chart is immediately drawn.
   • 2
     Add the MACD indicator to the chart. The process of adding technical indicators varies among charting platforms, but it is always clearly available as a single button or menu item. If necessary, first select the category of indicators called "oscillators" or "lower studies," as this is where the MACD will be found.
   • 3
     Identify the MACD sub-graph that appears below the price chart after it has been added. It will display two moving lines that are separate from the price and not superimposed on the main price chart as with other studies.
   • 4
     Identify "signal crossovers" that frequently appear in the MACD. These occur when the main MACD line crosses through its signal line. The two lines are easily distinguished as the MACD fluctuates more rapidly than the "smoother" signal. Signal line crossovers are one way to interpret the MACD. They suggest that a trend is beginning and momentum is gaining. A cross above the signal suggests prices will rise, while a cross below the signal indicates lower prices may be ahead.
   • 5
     Identify the occasions when the MACD crosses the center (zero) line. Most charting programs will show a constant horizontal line that bisects the MACD. When the main MACD line crosses above or below this line, it is often indicative of strengthening momentum to the upside or downside. This is another interpretation of the MACD.
   • 6
     Study the highs and lows in the price chart itself. Prices fluctuate and create peaks. Each subsequent high point may be higher or lower than the previous high. Observe the highs and lows in the MACD line that accompany these points in the price. When prices create a new higher high but the MACD creates a lower high, this is called "divergence" and is one of the most important concepts in technical analysis. The indicator is not confirming the strength in the market and a major price reversal may be imminent.

The graph above shows a stock with a MACD indicator underneath it. The indicator shows a blue line, a red line, and a histogram or bar chart which calculates the difference between the two lines. Values are calculated from the price of the stock in the main part of the graph.

For the example above this means:

• MACD line (blue line): difference between the 12 and 26 days EMAs
• signal (red line): 9 day EMA of the blue line
• histogram (bar graph): difference between the blue and red lines

Mathematically:

• MACD = EMA[stockPrices,12] – EMA[stockPrices,26]
• signal = EMA[MACD,9]
• histogram = MACD – signal

The period for the moving averages on which an MACD is based can vary, but the most commonly used parameters involve a faster EMA of 12 days, a slower EMA of 26 days, and the signal line as a 9 day EMA of the difference between the two. It is written in the form, MACD (faster, slower, signal) or in this case, MACD(12,26,9).

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Interpretation

Exponential moving averages highlight recent changes in a stock's price. By comparing EMAs of different lengths, the MACD line gauges changes in the trend of a stock. By then comparing differences in the change of that line to an average, an analyst can identify subtle shifts in the strength and direction of a stock's trend.

Traders recognize three meaningful signals generated by the MACD indicator.

When:

• the MACD line crosses the signal line
• the MACD line crosses zero
• there is a divergence between the MACD line and the price of the stock or between the histogram and the price of the stock

Graphically this corresponds to:

• the blue line crossing the red line
• the blue line crossing the x-axis (the straight black line in the middle of the indicator)
• higher highs (lower lows) on the price graph but not on the blue line, or higher highs (lower lows) on the price graph but not on the bar graph

And mathematically:

• MACD – signal = 0
• EMA[fast,12] – EMA[slow,26] = 0
• Sign (relative price extremum_final – relative price extremum_initial) ≠ Sign (relative MACD extremum_final – MACD extremum_initial)

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Signal–line crossover

Signal–line crossovers are the primary cues provided by the MACD. The standard interpretation is to buy when the MACD line crosses up through the signal line, or sell when it crosses down through the signal line.

The upwards move is called a bullish crossover and the downwards move a bearish crossover. Respectively, they indicate that the trend in the stock is about to accelerate in the direction of the crossover.

The histogram shows when a crossing occurs. Since the histogram is the difference between the MACD line and the signal line, when they cross there is no difference between them.

The histogram can also help in visualizing when the two lines are approaching a crossover. Though it may show a difference, the changing size of the difference can indicate the acceleration of a trend. A narrowing histogram suggests a crossover may be approaching, and a widening histogram suggests that an ongoing trend is likely to get even stronger.

While it is theoretically possible for a trend to increase indefinitely, under normal circumstances, even stocks moving drastically will eventually slow down, lest they go up to infinity or down to nothing.

[]Zero crossover

A crossing of the MACD line through zero happens when there is no difference between the fast and slow EMAs. A move from positive to negative is bearish and from negative to positive, bullish. Zero crossovers provide evidence of a change in the direction of a trend but less confirmation of its momentum than a signal line crossover.

[]Divergence

The third cue, divergence, refers to a discrepancy between the MACD line and the graph of the stock price. Positive divergence between the MACD and price arises when price hits a new low, but the MACD doesn't. This is interpreted as bullish, suggesting the downtrend may be nearly over. Negative divergence is when the stock price hits a new high but the MACD does not. This is interpreted as bearish, suggesting that recent price increases will not continue.

Divergence may also occur between the stock price and the histogram. If new high price levels are not confirmed by new high histogram levels, it is considered bearish; alternatively, if new low price levels are not confirmed by new low histogram levels, it is considered bullish.

Longer and sharper divergences—distinct peaks or troughs—are regarded as more significant than small, shallow patterns.

[edit]Timing

The MACD is only as useful as the context in which it is applied. An analyst might apply the MACD to a weekly scale before looking at a daily scale, in order to avoid making short term trades against the direction of the intermediate trend.^[2]Analysts will also vary the parameters of the MACD to track trends of varying duration. One popular short-term set-up, for example, is the (5,35,5).

[]False signals

Like any indicator, the MACD can generate false signals. A false positive, for example, would be a bullish crossover followed by a sudden decline in a stock. A false negative would be a situation where there was no bullish crossover, yet the stock accelerated suddenly upwards.

A prudent strategy would be to apply a filter to signal line crossovers to ensure that they will hold. An example of a price filter would be to buy if the MACD line breaks above the signal line and then remains above it for three days. As with any filtering strategy, this reduces the probability of false signals but increases the frequency of missed profit.

Analysts use a variety of approaches to filter out false signals and confirm true ones.

                                                                                                                                                  

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